Geoff Bennett:
For more on the latest PBS News poll and what to watch for during President Trump’s State of the Union tomorrow night, we turn now to our Politics Monday duo. That’s Tamara Keith of NPR and Jasmine Wright White House correspondent for NOTUS. Amy Walter is away this evening.
Great to see you both.
So let’s start with this poll. As we just reported, 55 percent of Americans say President Trump is changing the country for the worse. That includes 64 percent of independents.
Tam, what stands out to you in these numbers?
Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:
President Trump has really — he relied on independents to win. And he is losing them, which is going to be a problem in the midterms.
And I think the other thing that broadly stands out from the poll is just people are upset. There’s a lot of discontent about the state of the country, the direction of the country, the viability of American democracy. And there is still huge polarization.
If you look under the hood of these numbers, it really is Democrats are going this way, Republicans are going this way. However, independents are more in the direction of Democrats right now.
Geoff Bennett:
And, Jasmine, another thing that stands out in this poll, 53 percent of respondents say President Trump’s policies have had a negative impact on them personally.
That is different than abstract disapproval. This is people speaking about their direct experience.
Jasmine Wright, NOTUS:
And I think that is reflected in a lot of people’s discomfort with the tariffs. Obviously, we know that those were just struck down the way that he was using them by the Supreme Court.
But we have heard people be really frustrated about the tariffs, frustrated about high prices, frustrated about the economy not being as good as they have heard the president say, and also frustrated with the president’s immigration agenda. I think, if you look at some of the more recent polls, you have seen people being broadly accepting of the idea that more people should be deported, but not happy with the tactics.
And so the president is facing strong headwinds kind of across the board when it comes to how people are responding to his individual policies, which is not just about his personality.
Geoff Bennett:
Let’s talk more about the tariffs, because, just today, the president said: “As president, I do not have to go back to Congress to get approval of tariffs. It’s already been gotten,” he says, “in many forms a long time ago.”
He is really just brushing past the Supreme Court here, Tam. And tariffs were already unpopular. In many ways, this was an off-ramp that he could have taken, but he’s not.
Tamara Keith:
He is not taking the off-ramp. He is doubling down. He is claiming to continue to have massive powers.
The reality is that there are a whole bunch of three-digit number options that the president can use, and none of them are as powerful as IEEPA. None of them are that Swiss army knife that he was using IEEPA as. But, obviously, the Supreme Court found that he was using it in a way that wasn’t legal.
For a lot of voters, the tariffs, as Jasmine said, are a problem. They see things getting more expensive. Now you see major corporations and companies people have heard of are asking for refunds for the tariffs, which is another indication that it wasn’t foreign companies that were paying it.
But President Trump, this is a core belief for him. This is something that he has been talking about at least since the 1980s and probably before then. He — it is his favorite word, he likes to say. It is his favorite policy prescription for everything from foreign policy to the economy to trying to get world peace.
And so he is not giving this up easily, and he’s not creating any separation for Republicans in Congress, who are going to have to explain this in the coming months.
Geoff Bennett:
Jasmine, say more about that, because, to Tam’s point, FedEx today, the international shipping company, filed suit in the International Trade Court seeking a refund. This is a story that is really breaking through.
Based on your reporting, how are Republicans thinking about this in terms of the messaging and the policy?
Jasmine Wright:
Yes, and you’re going to have more of these companies and perhaps individual small businesses coming out and saying that, based on the ruling, we want a refund.
Now, the White House has been clear that is going to be settled later on in litigation. But, still, that is going to be a thing. I think that this is fundamentally important, because, so far, Congress has not necessarily been receptive to the president’s tariffs, particularly Republicans.
And in votes that they have taken against tariffs, particularly that Canadian tariffs vote to revoke those, six Republicans joined Democrats to remove those tariffs from Canada. That was a symbolic vote, because, even if it did pass in it, which it likely is not, it would still need to be veto-proof for the president.
Now, if he does in fact decide to go to Congress, which he says he won’t — but if he wants to continue those Section 122 tariffs, he will have to go to Congress. If he does, that vote becomes not symbolic, but serious. And it means that Republicans are going to have to be on the record in support or against these tariffs.
And that, of course, puts them potentially in hot water with their constituents, who may not like tariffs. But then on the other side, if they don’t vote for tariffs, it puts them in hot water with the president, who has shown that he will primary just about anybody that goes against him.
Geoff Bennett:
And there’s a risk here for President Trump being cast as out of touch when you have the American people by and large saying that they’re not — they don’t support these tariffs.
I remember, back in the early 90s, I think it was 1992, then-President George H.W. Bush was cast as being out of touch because he went to a grocers convention and there was one of those bar code scanners. And he said something like, oh, that’s cool, I have never seen anything like that before.
And people were like, how could you not know what a bar code scanner is in the supermarket? That was what passed for scandal and controversy back then. And here you have pluralities, majorities of the American public saying that they don’t want these tariffs. And the president is saying, OK, fine, 15 percent tariffs.
Tamara Keith:
Well, the president has also said that he has won affordability, that he’s done.
I think a big question that I have about this coming State of the Union address is, does he pivot to talk about affordability in a way that is relatable to the American people or does he once again say, don’t believe what you’re feeling, believe the numbers, believe me, believe anything but what you’re feeling?
I think that this is a real problem for him. But he is not, unless something dramatic happens, going to be on the ballot again. Yes, he wants — he and his team want the midterms to be about him because they think that’s the only way that they can juice turnout. But he personally is not on the ballot again.
Geoff Bennett:
Democrats tomorrow night are boycotting? Tell us more about that.
Jasmine Wright:
Yes, there are a handful of Democrats, growing kind of in numbers, that are just — that are saying that they are not going to be in the chamber as the speech are going on. Some are going to be having their own speech outside.
But I think you are seeing this kind of clash between Democratic leadership that says, if you are going, you need to be respectful. We don’t want to see some of the antics like holding up the sign that felt a bit unserious, if we’re going to be honest, last year, versus people saying, I’m going to opt out anyway.
Now, when we go back to those traditional Democrats, they are bringing people with them, as we have seen happen in the past, that are directly kind of in opposition to the president’s agenda. I know that Democrats are bringing some Epstein survivors, people related to Epstein survivors. They’re bringing folks who have been attacked or harmed, they say, by the president’s immigration policies, including people who have been legitimately ripped out of their car on video.
And so I think you’re seeing a traditional way of Democrats responding to the State of the Union and this nontraditional way, which is basically they’re opting out.
Geoff Bennett:
What are you watching for tomorrow night?
Tamara Keith:
Well, the president says it’s going to be long because he has a lot to say. He has now delivered a number of these addresses. He does tend to stay on the teleprompter. He does tend to follow the script.
But, sometimes, he — they put surprises in there. And I guess what I am watching for and looking for is, does — is this the bridge to the midterms that a White House official told me it would be? Does he focus on affordability? Does he maybe even make a case for whatever it is that he’s doing in Iran, as President George W. Bush did back in 2002? Or is this another episode of the Trump show?
Geoff Bennett:
Jasmine Wright.
Excuse me, I almost called you Amy Walter. I was…
Jasmine Wright:
I’m only Amy Walter on the best days.
(Laughter)
Geoff Bennett:
That’s right.
Jasmine Wright, Tamara Keith, my thanks to you both.
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