Mint Explainer | Bangladesh’s political transition and what it means for India

Mint examines what the political transition in Dhaka could mean for India and the wider region.

What happens on Tuesday, and why does it matter?

A new government led by Tarique Rahman will be sworn in following the 12 February general election, in which the BNP and its allies secured 212 of the 300 seats in the Jatiya Sangsad (Bangladesh parliament). The radical Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and coalition partners won 77 seats.

The polls mark a new and significant chapter in Bangladesh’s politics and history. The Awami League, instrumental in the birth of Bangladesh in 1971, was barred from contesting. It is now a banned party. This came after Awami League PM Sheikh Hasina was ousted after massive student protests in 2024. The polls followed 18 months of interim rule under Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohammed Yunus, making Tuesday’s swearing-in the formal beginning of a new political phase.

How have India-Bangladesh ties evolved in recent years?

India will be aiming to stabilize relations after Rahman takes over. After the “Shonali Adhyay” or Golden Chapter in India-Bangladesh relations during Hasina’s 2009-2024 term in office, ties with Dhaka nosedived with Yunus at the helm.

India’s decision to shelter Hasina caused friction in Dhaka. Attacks on Hindu minorities and Yunus’s remarks on India’s landlocked northeast’s dependence on it to access the ocean also raised tensions.

News of Bangladesh reviving a World War II-era airbase, close to India’s strategic Siliguri Corridor, with assistance from China, and the cancellation of an India-linked special economic zone and its handover to China for a drone manufacturing facility have added to India’s concerns about Bangladesh aligning closer with Beijing.

Who is attending Rahman’s swearing-in, and what does that signal?

India, Pakistan, Malaysia, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, Qatar, Brunei, Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives and Bhutan are among the countries invited for Rahman’s oath-taking.

The invites signal a desire by Bangladesh to broad base its ties, a shift away from the Hasina era, when India was accorded primacy in ties and seen as the partner of choice.

What has India’s outreach to the new government been like?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the early leaders to congratulate Rahman. Modi underlined India’s wish to work with Bangladesh, indicating India’s willingness to do business and build trust.

Rahman’s priority is to mend the economy and attract investors. He is said to be keen on reviving regional economic cooperation. India could look at fortifying collaboration among Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN countries).

Besides, the South-Asia-Southeast Asia BIMSTEC economic grouping could also be re-energised, given Rahman’s own outreach to countries like Malaysia and Brunei.

What could India do to reset ties with Bangladesh?

India could focus on improving bilateral economic ties with Bangladesh that have been a major casualty under Yunus’s governance. Embargoes on the usage of Indian land ports could be lifted as a goodwill gesture.

Given Bangladesh’s demographic profile—115 million people in working age— India should reach out to this group. Anti-India sentiment is reportedly high and hence India will have to look at ways to restore goodwill. Lifting visa restrictions could be a start. The issuance of medical visas for only urgent cases has been a sore point with Bangladesh.

What does the road ahead look like?

The relationship faces several potential flashpoints. Sheikh Hasina’s presence in India and her comments on developments in Bangladesh are reportedly seen by many in Bangladesh as an unfriendly gesture.

This would be exploited by India-baiters like the Jamaat to boost anti-India sentiment. The Jamaat has historically been pro-Pakistan. From a banned party in 2024 to 77 seats with allies in Parliament, the Jamaat has come a long way in a short span of time. And they will make the most of it.

Then there is the treatment of minorities in Bangladesh. Given the demographic profile of India, this could prove a tough challenge for Rahman.

Politics ahead of elections in West Bengal and Assam could cast a shadow on ties too. India will need to be patient with Rahman and his new government. True, he and parties allied to his BNP have a two-thirds majority, but he could still face challenges from the Jamaat if he is perceived to be close to India.

Both sides should focus on building trust, given the reality that the BNP may never be pro-India like the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina. As long as Rahman is perceived as being sensitive to Indian concerns vis-à-vis Pakistan and China, besides insurgency in India’s northeast and does not make any anti-India moves like allowing insurgents facilities to operate from Bangladesh, India should look to keep ties on an even keel with Bangladesh.

Reaching out to the people and the youth of Bangladesh will be key to turning the tide in India’s favour. But for that, the Indian government will have to work with and through the new Rahman government.

Elizabeth Roche is associate professor, O.P. Jindal Global University, Haryana.