Geoff Bennett:
For more on the political fallout of the military action in Iran, we’re joined now by our Politics Monday duo. That’s Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.
It’s great to see you both.
Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:
Hello. Good to be here.
Geoff Bennett:
So, Tam, as you well know, House Republicans are gathered today at President Trump’s golf club just outside Miami as this midterm season starts to take shape. And, of course, the backdrop to all of this is complicated. The cost of living remains high. You have the administration opening a military confrontation in the Middle East without a clearly articulated strategy to the public.
What went down in Doral today and what’s the message from Republicans and how does that square with reality?
Tamara Keith:
Well, President Trump pitched Republicans on passing what is called — he’s calling the SAVE America Act. That was his big pitch. He delivered a lot of remarks. It was pretty wide-ranging.
But his argument was that Republicans, if they could just pass that, they could win the midterms. Now, we should explain what that is. That is a law or a bill that may never become a law because there are problems in the Senate getting it through.
But it is a piece of legislation that would require not just voter I.D., but proof of citizenship in order to vote. He also wants the House to of sort of reopen it and tack on some items related to transgender people and sports and medical procedures. So it is what the president sees as sort of the gold medal legislation that can be their entire message for the midterms.
And, as an added bonus, he’s arguing Democrats won’t be able to win if they can’t cheat. Now, that — there’s a lot underlying that. But that is his pitch. That is his pitch to Republicans. And he has said, he said today, he has said on social media he is not going to sign other legislation until this is on his desk, which I don’t know if he can hold to that.
Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:
It is quite remarkable when you think about what he said today in Florida and what the White House aides have been saying to Republicans for the last few weeks, which is, don’t worry, we’re going to talk about affordability nonstop.
The president’s going to go on tour. He’s going to talk up what you all did, Republicans in Congress to pass this tax cut. He’s going to echo that. We’re going to talk about affordability. Maybe there’s even an opportunity — this isn’t the White House saying this, but this has been bandied about — of another piece of legislation, a reconciliation bill that would be Republican only that would also talk about affordability.
That is the number one issue for voters. It is pretty clear. We saw it at the State of the Union. We’re hearing it now. That idea of a president running on an affordability agenda or promoting that is just not going to happen.
Geoff Bennett:
Well, let me ask you this, because the president, in speaking to his Republican colleagues today, said — quote — “No other president could do some of the ‘expletive’ I’m doing.”
There are certainly Republicans who wish that he was doing less. I mean, what is the level of anxiety?
Amy Walter:
But he’s not — and he’s not wrong.
Geoff Bennett:
He’s not wrong at all.
Amy Walter:
Right.
Geoff Bennett:
You’re right. But what’s the level of anxiety among Republicans right now heading into the midterms?
Amy Walter:
Well, I think they’re — it feels as if for many there’s a sense of resignation. They have a very narrow majority on the House side. They have a very narrow majority. It is unlikely, it is very challenging for any party to do well in a midterm election, especially at a time when the president’s approval rating is where it is.
So there seems to be some resignation that it’s going to be really hard for us to keep the House. What I think they’re looking for is some sense that — and they have to do two things. They need to keep losses at least manageable, so that it’s not a blowout. And the Senate becomes the real question mark.
If you see higher level of concern among Republicans, it would be if they’re worried that the Senate is now also on the line. Right now, they don’t believe that. I think that’s correct. But they would like for the president to at least ensure that that doesn’t happen.
Geoff Bennett:
Tam, on Iran, there are reports that the White House was surprised by the scale of Iran’s retaliation in the Gulf, the number of drones and missiles fired at the UAE and fired at civilian targets.
What does that say about how prepared the administration was for the series of consequences, intended and otherwise?
Tamara Keith:
Yes, and I would like to jump to another consequence that I think is very clearly weighing on the president, whether he admits it or not, and that is oil and gas prices.
That is something that affects voters immediately the second they go to fill up their gas tanks. And it undercuts the affordability agenda that the president has been talking about. I mean, he’s mostly been dismissing affordability and he has repeatedly, including in his State of the Union, touted these record low, not really record, very low gas prices and low gas prices were going to be the solution to all of the ailments, everything that ails everyone on affordability.
And he’s saying that they knew that oil prices would rise as a result of this war. But they are rising now, and he is suddenly talking about this as, oh, this is just an excursion, this is a very short-term excursion. We are going to fix this because we need to fix the oil prices, we need to fix the gas prices.
Geoff Bennett:
The president trying to speak it into existence.
Amy Walter:
Yes.
And, look, it is true if this does indeed become something that is very short-lived, the military presence, the U.S. military presence in Iran, if we get gas prices, oil prices to go down, then, yes, this is not something that people will be talking about in November.
However, it is just one more reminder, I think, to a lot of voters of the chaos that they are feeling in their lives when it comes to the cost of stuff.
Geoff Bennett:
Tam?
Tamara Keith:
Yes, repeatedly, polls — and this was before the Iran war, but polls have shown voters saying that they believe that the president isn’t focused on the issues that matter most to them.
I have been talking to a lot of swing voters. Whether they support him or not, literally every single one of them has said that the economy is their number one issue. And this war is affecting, at least temporarily and maybe longer term, the economy in a way that is completely counter to what the president promised when he ran for office.
Amy Walter:
I talked to a Republican strategist the other day who — I’m paraphrasing, but basically said what we would really like as Republicans to see the president declare war on the price of groceries, rather than making the focus on Iran.
Geoff Bennett:
Amy Walter and Tamara Keith, thanks to you both.
Amy Walter:
You’re welcome.
Tamara Keith:
You’re welcome.
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