How Nitish Kumar’s Rajya Sabha transfer may reshape Bihar politics — What it means for JD(U) and BJP

Less than four months after taking oath as Bihar Chief Minister for a record 10th term — and just four days after turning 75 — Nitish Kumar has decided to move to the Rajya Sabha. And in doing so, the Janata Dal United chief has paved the way for its ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), to have its leader in charge.

The move not only ends ailing Nitish’s two-decade tenure in Bihar but paves the way for the saffron party to have its first chief minister in the politically crucial state.

Nitish’s move will trigger a fresh political churn in Bihar. Once elected to Rajya Sabha, a foregone conclusion, Nitish will have to resign as chief minister of Bihar.

In a message addressed to the people of Bihar ahead of the move, Kumar expressed gratitude for their unwavering support over the past two decades, saying their trust had been the foundation of his long public service.

“For more than two decades, you have consistently placed your trust and support in me, and it is on the strength of that trust that we have served Bihar and all of you with complete dedication,” he wrote in Hindi on X.

Transition was not unexpected

The transition was not unexpected, says political analyst Amitabh Tiwari. “It was just a matter of time,” he told Mint.

Why? The BJP is the senior partner in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the state.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won a landslide victory, securing 202 of the 243 seats in the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections, defeating the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan (MGB), which secured just 35 seats.

For the first time, the BJP became the single-largest party in the Bihar assembly with 89 seats, followed by the JD (U) with 85 seats. Nitish Kumar took the oath for a record tenth time. Samrat Chaudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha took the oath as the deputy chief ministers for the second consecutive time.

“The wait was perhaps for Nitish’s approval. You couldn’t have an ailing Nitish as vice president, a post which gets media limelight as Rajya Sabha chairperson. Making him minister is also not advisable given his health issues. So Rajya Sabha is what Nitish could get,” Tiwari said.

Since 2005, Nitish Kumar has remained the central figure in Bihar’s politics, navigating complex alliances and shifting political equations while retaining his hold on power. His Rajya Sabha switch is not just a seat change. It could change Bihar’s leadership structure, the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) internal balance, and Janata Dal United’s long-term survival strategy in the state.

For some analysts, it might as well be the most significant political transition since the end of the Lalu era many years ago.

“A lot will depend on who the deputy CM would be. If it is Nishant Kumar (Nitish’s son), we will need to keep an eye on how he handles the post. Nishant is naive in politics. It also remains to be seen how he handles JD-U old guard like Lallan Singh and Sanjay Jha,” another analyst said.

The Nitish Era of JD (U) Politics

Does Nitish’s shift mark the beginning of a post-Nitish era in Bihar, given that he arguably has the state’s biggest political brand? Whichever party or alliance Nitish Kumar has allied with has won elections in the past, he has undoubtedly emerged as the kingmaker, analysts said.

Nitish Kumar became Bihar CM for the first time in 2000. The government collapsed within 8 days. His next stint began in 2005. Since then, there has been no stopping him until 2014, when he resigned after JD(U)’s poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections that year, only to be sworn in as CM again. The last time he took the oath as Chief Minister was in November 2025.

Political analysts say Nitish Kumar’s strength rests on a carefully cultivated base of voters comprising the Kurmi-Koeri communities (7%), Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs, at 26%), Mahadalits, and women.

What does it mean for the BJP?

These constituencies have, by and large, remained loyal to Nitish through various political upheavals, drawn by his relatively clean image and development-focused governance, according to Tiwari.

Will this vote bank be affected? “This is a third front voter. It will either be with JD-U or the RJD. In the case of the JD-U merger with the BJP, as and when it happens, the vote might shift. But I do not think BJP will be in a hurry to merge the party,” Tiwari said.

The only other popular leader in Bihar over the last few decades has been Lalu Prasad Yadav. The Rashtriya Janata Dal chief enjoyed a strong base of loyal support, especially among the OBCs, Scheduled Castes, and Muslims. Lalu was a charismatic mass leader with grassroots connections that drew support for his party and his son Tejashwi Yadav.

Lalu’s decline in Bihar politics was the result of a mix of governance failures, corruption scandals, and social changes that reshaped the state’s political landscape in the last few decades.

Lalu’s decline coincided with Nitish’s rise

Consequently, the non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits, feeling excluded from Lalu’s caste politics, gravitated toward Nitish Kumar’s EBC (Extremely Backward Classes) outreach and the JD(U)-BJP alliance.

Nitish Kumar has been a member of the Assembly, the Legislative Council, and the Lok Sabha, but has never been a member of the Rajya Sabha. This Rajya Sabha entry would bring him in line with other Bihar veterans like Lalu Yadav and Sushil Modi – membership in all four houses of the parliamentary and state legislative system.